Students learn how to predict outcomes using probability. As learning progresses students understand the effect of sample size in determining the accuracy of the predictions. More able students combine this with sample space diagrams.At the start of the lesson students recap estimating probabilities. In the plenary students apply their learning to judge the appropriateness of statistical conclusions based on probability.

**Differentiated Learning Objectives**

- All students should be able to calculate an expected frequency using theoretical probability.
- Most students should be able to calculate an expected frequency using relative frequency.
- Some students should be able to plot relative frequency graphs to understand the effects of sample size when calculating an expected frequency.

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