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**Scheme of work: Key Stage 3: Year 7: Term 5: Chance and Probability**

- Compare and order fractions, including fractions > 1
- Use common factors to simplify fractions; use common multiples to express fractions in the same denomination
- Add and subtract fractions with different denominators and mixed numbers, using the concept of equivalent fractions

- The terms outcome, event and probability are key to describing the likelihood of an event occurring.
- The outcome is the result of an experiment
- An event is a set of outcomes of a probability experiment
- Probability describes the likelihood of an event occurring. A probability can be given as a fraction, decimal or percentage.

- An event which is impossible has a probability of zero. An event which is certain to occur has a probability of one.
- When listing all the permutations of two or more events students need a logical and exhaustive systematic method.
- When working with experimental data a probability can only be estimated as contextual factors are likely to have been a factor in the outcome.

- Develop fluency
- Use language and properties precisely to analyse numbers, algebraic expressions, 2-D and 3-D shapes, probability and statistics.

- Reason mathematically
- Explore what can and cannot be inferred in statistical and probabilistic settings, and begin to express their arguments formally.

- Solve problems
- Select appropriate concepts, methods and techniques to apply to unfamiliar and non-routine problems.
- Begin to model situations mathematically and express the results using a range of formal mathematical representations

- Probability
- Record, describe and analyse the frequency of outcomes of simple probability experiments involving randomness, fairness, equally and unequally likely outcomes, using appropriate language and the 0-1 probability scale.
- Understand that the probabilities of all possible outcomes sum to 1
- Generate theoretical sample spaces for single and combined events with equally likely, mutually exclusive outcomes and use these to calculate theoretical probabilities.

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