Chance and Probability

Scheme of work: Key Stage 3: Year 7: Term 5: Chance and Probability

Compare and order fractions, including fractions > 1
Use common factors to simplify fractions; use common multiples to express fractions in the same denomination
Add and subtract fractions with different denominators and mixed numbers, using the concept of equivalent fractions

The terms outcome, event and probability are key to describing the likelihood of an event occurring.
- The outcome is the result of an experiment
- An event is a set of outcomes of a probability experiment
- Probability describes the likelihood of an event occurring. A probability can be given as a fraction, decimal or percentage.
An event which is impossible has a probability of zero. An event which is certain to occur has a probability of one.
When listing all the permutations of two or more events students need a logical and exhaustive systematic method.
When working with experimental data a probability can only be estimated as contextual factors are likely to have been a factor in the outcome.

Develop fluency
- Use language and properties precisely to analyse numbers, algebraic expressions, 2-D and 3-D shapes, probability and statistics.
Reason mathematically
- Explore what can and cannot be inferred in statistical and probabilistic settings, and begin to express their arguments formally.
Solve problems
- Select appropriate concepts, methods and techniques to apply to unfamiliar and non-routine problems.
- Begin to model situations mathematically and express the results using a range of formal mathematical representations

Probability
- Record, describe and analyse the frequency of outcomes of simple probability experiments involving randomness, fairness, equally and unequally likely outcomes, using appropriate language and the 0-1 probability scale.
- Understand that the probabilities of all possible outcomes sum to 1
- Generate theoretical sample spaces for single and combined events with equally likely, mutually exclusive outcomes and use these to calculate theoretical probabilities.