Chance and Probability

Students learn how to write a probability as a simplified fraction.  As learning progresses they use equivalent fractions to compare probabilities and predict outcomes by finding a fraction of an amount.

This unit takes place in Term 5 of Year 7 and is followed by probability, outcomes and Venn Diagrams in Year 8.


Chance and Probability Lessons
Prerequisite Knowledge
  • Compare and order fractions, including fractions > 1
  • Use common factors to simplify fractions; use common multiples to express fractions in the same denomination
  • Add and subtract fractions with different denominators and mixed numbers, using the concept of equivalent fractions
Key Concepts
  • The terms outcome, event and probability are key to describing the likelihood of an event occurring
    • Outcome is the result of an experiment
    • An event is a set of outcomes of a probability experiment
    • Probability describes the likelihood of an event occurring.  A probability can be given as fraction, decimal or percentage.
  • An event which is impossible has a  probability of zero.  An event which is certain to occur has a probability of one.
  • When listing all the permutations of two or more events students need a logical and exhaustive systematic method.
  • When working with experimental data a probability can only be estimated as contextual factors are likely to have been a factor in the outcome.
Working mathematically

Develop fluency

  • Use language and properties precisely to analyse numbers, algebraic expressions, 2-D and 3-D shapes, probability and statistics.

Reason mathematically

  • Explore what can and cannot be inferred in statistical and probabilistic settings, and begin to express their arguments formally.

Solve problems

  • Select appropriate concepts, methods and techniques to apply to unfamiliar and non-routine problems.
  • Begin to model situations mathematically and express the results using a range of formal mathematical representations
Subject Content

Probability

  • Record, describe and analyse the frequency of outcomes of simple probability experiments involving randomness, fairness, equally and unequally likely outcomes, using appropriate language and the 0-1 probability scale.
  • Understand that the probabilities of all possible outcomes sum to 1
  • Generate theoretical sample spaces for single and combined events with equally likely, mutually exclusive outcomes and use these to calculate theoretical probabilities.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes:

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Mr Mathematics Blog

Area of Compound Shapes

To find the area of compound shapes students need to understand what the word compound means.  Therefore, I ask students to discuss in pairs a definition for the word compound and to extend it to include the shapes below.  As a result of their learning in science students agree that a compound can be defined […]

Priorities for the Spring Term

At the start of the Spring Term these are three main priorities for me as the Head of Mathematics.

Mutually Exclusive Outcomes and Events

I teach mutually exclusive outcomes directly after students have encountered Venn diagrams. This is the fifth Year 8 Probability lesson.